Is globalization self-organizing?
20/12/07 16:52 Filed in: publicatons
In:
Globalization as evolutionary
process: Modeling, simulating, and forecasting
global change, edited by George Modelski
and Tessalino Devezas and William R. Thompson.
2007. London: Routledge.
The observance
of a relatively stable pattern of global system
development has often been criticised for the lack
of theoretical underpinnings of its pulsating
behavior. This paper contributes to the growing
literature that combines complex system
explanations with theories of global system
development, providing a generational perspective
on the rise and demise of centers of socio-economic
leadership. It argues, that the pattern of roughly
one-hundred year long waves of alternating
leadership clusters - characterized by their
innovative development of a coherent
socio-technological paradigm - can be empirically
traced and analyzed through the observance of a
three-step generational cohort pattern, what is
termed here as the ``Buddenbrook cycle.'' Based of
innovations originating in new forms of
socio-technological behavior of the first
generation, the following second generation groomed
in this new environment, transforms these
innovations into a coherent socio-technological
paradigm, whereas the third generation remains
``stuck'' in this formerly superior paradigm,
unable to adapt to emerging new alternative
socio-technological innovations, and allowing new
socio-economic innovations to arise in alternative
and geographically separate clusters.
@inbook{Rennstich2007aa,
Address = {London},
Author = {Joachim K. Rennstich},
Booktitle = {Globalization as evolutionary process: Modeling, simulating, and forecasting global change},
Editor = {George Modelski and Tessalino Devezas and William R. Thompson},
Keywords = {complex systems; evolutionary models; long-cycles; generational theory},
Pages = {88--108},
Publisher = {Routledge},
Title = {Is globalization self-organizing?},
Year = {2007},
Abstract = {The observance of a relatively stable pattern of global system development has often been criticised for the lack of theoretical underpinnings of its pulsating behavior. This paper contributes to the growing literature that combines complex system explanations with theories of global system development, providing a generational perspective on the rise and demise of centers of socio-economic leadership. It argues, that the pattern of roughly one-hundred year long waves of alternating leadership clusters - characterized by their innovative development of a coherent socio-technological paradigm - can be empirically traced and analyzed through the observance of a three-step generational cohort pattern, what is termed here as the ``Buddenbrook cycle.'' Based of innovations originating in new forms of socio-technological behavior of the first generation, the following second generation groomed in this new environment, transforms these innovations into a coherent socio-technological paradigm, whereas the third generation remains ``stuck'' in this formerly superior paradigm, unable to adapt to emerging new alternative socio-technological innovations, and allowing new socio-economic innovations to arise in alternative and geographically separate clusters.},
Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://www.routledge.com/books/Globalization-as-Evolutionary-Process-isbn9780415773614}}
BibTeX
@inbook{Rennstich2007aa,
Address = {London},
Author = {Joachim K. Rennstich},
Booktitle = {Globalization as evolutionary process: Modeling, simulating, and forecasting global change},
Editor = {George Modelski and Tessalino Devezas and William R. Thompson},
Keywords = {complex systems; evolutionary models; long-cycles; generational theory},
Pages = {88--108},
Publisher = {Routledge},
Title = {Is globalization self-organizing?},
Year = {2007},
Abstract = {The observance of a relatively stable pattern of global system development has often been criticised for the lack of theoretical underpinnings of its pulsating behavior. This paper contributes to the growing literature that combines complex system explanations with theories of global system development, providing a generational perspective on the rise and demise of centers of socio-economic leadership. It argues, that the pattern of roughly one-hundred year long waves of alternating leadership clusters - characterized by their innovative development of a coherent socio-technological paradigm - can be empirically traced and analyzed through the observance of a three-step generational cohort pattern, what is termed here as the ``Buddenbrook cycle.'' Based of innovations originating in new forms of socio-technological behavior of the first generation, the following second generation groomed in this new environment, transforms these innovations into a coherent socio-technological paradigm, whereas the third generation remains ``stuck'' in this formerly superior paradigm, unable to adapt to emerging new alternative socio-technological innovations, and allowing new socio-economic innovations to arise in alternative and geographically separate clusters.},
Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://www.routledge.com/books/Globalization-as-Evolutionary-Process-isbn9780415773614}}
The Future of Hegemony and Global System Leadership (2005)
18/06/05 16:30 Filed in: publicatons
In:
The Future of World
Society, edited by Mark Herkenrath,
Claudia König, Hanno Scholtz, and Thomas Volken
(2005) Zurich, CH: Intelligent.
[order here]
The latest resurgence of interest in the concept of hegemony and empire – both in the popular and academic realm – has been mostly the result of a change in perception of power, specifically its sources, application, and distribution. Here we argue, that this can largely be explained as the result of the dynamic changes inherent in the process of global system formation. After a brief discussion of prevalent concepts of political and economic hegemony, this work offers an evolutionary perspective to place current changes of power and its distribution in the dynamic long-term development of global system formation. It then presents alternative visions of the future development of political and economic hegemony. It concludes that a further rise in instability of global political power distribution accompanied by a likely challenge to existing distributional patterns has a high probability of occurrence.
[order here]
The latest resurgence of interest in the concept of hegemony and empire – both in the popular and academic realm – has been mostly the result of a change in perception of power, specifically its sources, application, and distribution. Here we argue, that this can largely be explained as the result of the dynamic changes inherent in the process of global system formation. After a brief discussion of prevalent concepts of political and economic hegemony, this work offers an evolutionary perspective to place current changes of power and its distribution in the dynamic long-term development of global system formation. It then presents alternative visions of the future development of political and economic hegemony. It concludes that a further rise in instability of global political power distribution accompanied by a likely challenge to existing distributional patterns has a high probability of occurrence.
BibTeX
Three Steps in the Globalization of the International System: Global Networks from 1000 B.C.E. to 2053 C.E. (2005)
18/06/05 16:25 Filed in: publicatons
In
Globalization and Global
History, edited by
Barry K. Gills and William R. Thompson (2005)
London: Routledge.
Most treatments of
globalization view it as a relatively recent and
unique process. Combining frameworks of political
geography (world city and network analysis) with a
long-term oriented IR framework, further evidence
is provided for the emergence of an informational
network economy, global in extent, cyclical in
occurrence, and evolutionary in nature. The chapter
empirically traces the origins of today's global
digital infrastructure (in the form of ICT
networks) from the emergence of a commercial
Phoenician system emerging 1000B C.E. over the
13/14th century Italian city-state and 16th century
Dutch maritime commercial networks. The focus on
networks and the re-emergence of global cities as
central nodes in the world economy highlights the
need to add data beyond the state as the level of
analysis for studies of the international system.
At the same time, however, it makes evident the
need to view these nodes as an embedded part of a
state-based international system.
BibTeX
The Phoenix-Cycle: Global Leadership Transition in a Long-Wave Perspective (2004)
01/04/04 16:10 Filed in: publicatons
In
Hegemony, Globalization and
Antisystemic
Movements, edited by
Thomas E. Reifer. Boulder, CO: Paradigm.
The reoccurring
shift in the geographical and political location of
power as a result of hegemonic transitions has been
explained as the outcome of the leader’s experience
of success in the current setting, creating an
entrenched institutional setting (in a broader
sense) that proves adaptive in defending its turf
but less so in fostering the rise of new leading
sectors. This paper introduces the concept of
internal and external global network environments
in the world system and argues that the extension
of leadership from an old to a new commercial and
organizational arrangement is dependent on the
systemic nature of the world system. A shift from
an external to an internal network environment (or
vice versa) allows the parallel development and
rise of new leading sectors because they pose no
threat to the existing institutional setting of the
established leading sectors. The emerging new
leading sectors do profit from the relative
advantages of the current leadership position (in
terms of capital, costs, etc.) without the
resistance usually encountered from the established
leading sectors. The paper develops a systematic
account of the shifts from maritime commercial
(external network environment) phases, over
industrial (internal network environment) phases,
to the rise of a digital commercial (external
network environment) phase. It concludes that the
shift from an industrial phase to the new digital
commercial phase puts the current systemic leader,
the United States, in a position of continued
leadership over two long-waves.
[previous, more detailed draft]
[previous, more detailed draft]
BibTeX
The Future of Great Power Rivalries (2003)
18/06/03 15:59 Filed in: publicatons
Ch. 9
(pp. 143-61) in: New Theoretical Directions for
the 21st Century, edited by W.
A. Dunaway. 2003. Westport, CT: Praeger
Grounded in the
expanding literature on the concept of rivalry this
chapter examines the question whether we should
expect the number of rivalries in the twenty-first
century to rise, to remain steady, or even to fall
and why so. It introduces a categorization of
“contexts” in the form of global rivalry
environments in which interstate rivalries occur.
Combining the framework of the leadership long
cycle and the concept of rivalries we are able to
identify global long cycle environments that
determine the way rivalries are established, how
they “behave,” and how they end. Just as major
shocks cause the equilibria of interstate rival
behavior to rearrange and create a new stable
environment, so do major global shocks create a
phase of transition after which a new global
environment is established in which the rivalries
take place. The chapter offers a unique view on the
past, presence, and future of major power rivalry
behavior in the international system by developing
three main global rivalry environments (and two
transitional phases) stretching from 1200 to 1990
and describing selected parameters influencing
rivalry behavior unique in their character in each
of those global rivalry environments. It concludes,
that the number of strategic rivalries can be
expected to remain relatively low, the number of
commercial rivalries, however, is very likely to
increase significantly in the not too distant
future.