The Future of Great Power Rivalries (2003)
18/06/03 15:59 Filed in: publicatons
Ch. 9
(pp. 143-61) in: New Theoretical Directions for
the 21st Century, edited by W.
A. Dunaway. 2003. Westport, CT: Praeger
Grounded in the
expanding literature on the concept of rivalry this
chapter examines the question whether we should
expect the number of rivalries in the twenty-first
century to rise, to remain steady, or even to fall
and why so. It introduces a categorization of
“contexts” in the form of global rivalry
environments in which interstate rivalries occur.
Combining the framework of the leadership long
cycle and the concept of rivalries we are able to
identify global long cycle environments that
determine the way rivalries are established, how
they “behave,” and how they end. Just as major
shocks cause the equilibria of interstate rival
behavior to rearrange and create a new stable
environment, so do major global shocks create a
phase of transition after which a new global
environment is established in which the rivalries
take place. The chapter offers a unique view on the
past, presence, and future of major power rivalry
behavior in the international system by developing
three main global rivalry environments (and two
transitional phases) stretching from 1200 to 1990
and describing selected parameters influencing
rivalry behavior unique in their character in each
of those global rivalry environments. It concludes,
that the number of strategic rivalries can be
expected to remain relatively low, the number of
commercial rivalries, however, is very likely to
increase significantly in the not too distant
future.